Final Poll: Alabama US-senate special election
Final poll: Alabama senate election 2017 Doug Jones (D) vs Roy Moore (R)
The poll was conducted using Google Consumer Surveys. In total there were 3721 respondents, with 3030 responses collected through polls conducted with Google Consumer Survey’s android app and 691 collected through answer-to-see articles online. Of those, 2209 of the respondents answered that they would vote for either Roy Moore or Doug Jones. The responses were gathered between December 3-10 2017 which is the week before the election, Tuesday December 12th. The margin of error is calculated to be 2.1%
Our poll only sought to investigate the support between the two main candidates and therefore no option for write in candidates or similar was included. However, the respondents were given the option to choose that they still are undecided or that they are unsure whether they will vote or not, as an alternative to picking ”Not voting”, which was set to always be the last option in the list, the order of the rest of the answers were randomized.
The respondents were asked:
"If the special election for the US-Senate in Alabama was held today, for whom would you vote?”
The answer options were:
"Roy Moore, the Republican"
"Doug Jones, the Democrat"
"I will vote, but I am undecided"
"Not voting (not eligible,staying home etc.)"
"I am not sure if I will vote”
After the polls were finished the respondents IP adresses were checked against each other to make sure there were no duplicates. Then, the weighing process was started. We weighed the data from the polls with our own turnout estimates, broken down by sex and age (approx. 10 year brackets), which were compiled from various comparable midterm races in similar states together with voter registration numbers in Alabama. Because of this the potential over- or underrepresentation in certain age brackets or sexes was as minimal as possible. However, predicting turnout is always difficult and in this race it is especially hard to account for the republican voters who might stay home or those who will not admit who they are really going to vote for, even in an anonymous online poll. It is also hard to predict how energized the Democrats are at the potential to win a seat in a state were they usually have no chance.
After the weighing process Democratic candidate Doug Jones was in the lead, with 55.4% indicating they will vote for Jones vs 44.6% for Roy Moore, a 10.8 percentage point margin for Jones over the scandal ridden Republican candidate.
Male respondents were more likely to support Roy Moore with a weighed result of 50.3% supporting Jones and 49.7% supporting Roy Moore, which, while still a majority support for the Democrat, it is a smaller margin than the margin of error and it could go both ways on Tuesday. Female respondents on the other hand showed a much larger support for the Democratic candidate with 60% for Jones and only 40% for Moore, a 20 point lead!
By dividing the results into age brackets we learn that the biggest support (unsurprisingly!) for Doug Jones was found in the two youngest age brackets (18-24 and 25-34) with 72.7% for Jones vs 27.3% for Moore. The biggest support for Roy Moore was found in the oldest age bracket (65+) with 44% for Jones and 56% for Moore. Moore leads in only two age brackets, 55-64 and 65+, but Jones lead in the bracket 45-54 is smaller than the margin of error.
This is the final Alabama poll conducted by us before the election on Tuesday December 12th, however it is not the first. Through out the last several weeks we have conducted and released polls on a regular basis, which can be found on our Twitter account if you are interested. If you want regular updates on future polls please follow us there! The midterm elections is coming up and we will poll important primaries and races.